We expect another onslaught of Government spin and disinformation over their new "soundbite" figure of "£1.7 billion for identity fraud" , which is being falsely spun as some sort of justification for the billions to be spent on the National Identity Register ID Card scheme.
The "detailed" breakdown of the £1.7 billion figure is online at:
This is as bad as the discredited 2002 Cabinet Office figure of £1.3 billion !
Even where the notes to the figures say "we have no idea how much of this figure is due to identity fraud", the whole figure has been added up to compile the supposed £1.7 billion figure !
They have actually had to repeat some of the same vague figures from the 2002 report, "for comparison", for want of anything else e.g. £395 million for Money Laundering, and £215 million for MITC (Missing Trader Intra-Community) fraud. It can be argued that such mostly international frauds do not even represent a loss to the UK economy, but a net gain.
As if by magic, a figure of £372 million has appeared under the heading of "Telecommunications", which did not appear in the 2002 report. How exactly was this large figure arrived at, and by whom ?
They are also including the estimated costs of enforcement measures in various departments like for driving tests, or the Police, which would remain as fixed overhead costs, even after the introduction of a perfect ID Card scheme. e.g. the £62.8 million "The cost to UKPS of measures to counter identity
fraud when processing applications for UK passports issued in the UK."
This fixed overhead cost will not be reduced by the proposed Identity Cards scheme, it will in fact be increased by at least the alleged £584 million a year running costs of the NIR (according to the Home Office's Regulatory Impact Assessment). i.e. the ID Cards scheme, would, according to this analysis actually increase the cost to the UK economy to over £2.3 billion a year !
These "identity fraud" figures are totally inadequate, and are another insult to the intelligence of anyone who looks at them.
Where are the actual crime statistics on the numbers of "identity fraud" crimes actually committed, the number of criminals involved, and the number of actual victims, and the amount of money they have actually lost ?
Where is the evidence of the alleged improvements since 2002 e.g. the secure passport delivery via courier rather than by post and the whole "Chip and PIN" system which was not yet in place in 2002 ?
Andy Burnham. the former spin doctor, is the Home Office Minister in charge of Home Office research. Why did he not commission a proper scientific , quantitative study ?