Welcome to my personal handicapping website. I've
developed an automated approach to
thoroughbred handicapping, which I believe, is second to
none. All good handicappers
have certain profiles they look for in a race. My system
defines profiles for speed,
class, pace, and pedigree, and displays the information
in a simplified manner, making
these profiles easy to find. It enables you to
visualize a race in the early stages, determine what horse should make the lead,
what horses should stalk the pace, and what
horses have a late-running style.
I list enough information on each horse, to do a quick
race analysis, make assumptions
about the pace, and find spot plays and key selections.
This system has become a widely
used handicapping method of choice, especially for the
rolling pick3 and pick4 player.
What happens early in a race on the front end can
greatly affect the outcome. Middle
speed and finishing times are important, but we analyze
quarter and half mile fractions to
determine pace. Horses fall under three distinct styles
of racing with respect to the quarter
and half mile. There are horses that run faster first
quarters, horses that run faster second
quarters, and horses that run similar quarters.
Sprinters usually make a big move in the
first or second quarter, and routers typically run
similar fractions, sustaining their
speed throughout the race. The +/- column is simply the
difference in lengths between the
estimated first and second quarters. A value of ZERO in
this column is indicative of a router, or horse that
prefers distances of 1 mile or longer. For example, 24.5
and 49.0 for the first two quarters is not very
impressive. But, if a horse sustains that pace for a
mile,
the next two fractions will be 73.5 and 98.0 (or :1-13-2
and :1-38-0). That horse will
pass tired horses and appear to be flying at the finish,
but he is actually just sustaining
his pace. By glancing at the +/- column, you can
determine which horses are front-runners,
which are closers, and which are sustained runners. I
tend to look for horses that have a
different running style than the rest of the field -
lone speed, lone closer, and lone ZERO.
Also listed for each horse is the average purse value in
each of his/her starts, adjusted
for state bred or restricted races. This figure, in
combination with the predicted running
order at the first call, can identify
speed-class
combinations that make some front runners
hard to catch. It can also expose 'cheap speed', which
in most cases, eliminates a horse
from serious contention.
It's important to know that the horse with
the SPD ranking of 1 should be respected, since this horse is our predicted pace-setter.
If the race will have a wire-to-wire winner, this is the probable choice in many cases. Many
Racehorse Runner customers are speed players, and always use our top rated front-runner,
especially if the $$ figure is competetive in the race.
Races with an abundance or lack of early speed stand out
conspicuously on the sheet.
Front-runners are illustrated with negative values in
the +/- column, and closers have
positive values. The information is listed to easily
identify horses as lone speed and
lone closers. In these two cases, one horse in a
particular race exhibits a different
running style than the rest of the field. Although this
scenario isn't found in every race,
it can prove to be a valuable observation. Read more
about how to use the sheet on the
About the Sheet and
Sample Profiles pages.
Understanding speed, class, and pace are essential in
handicapping, but in some races,
the most important factor is pedigree. Most handicappers
need more than just the names
of a horse's sire and dam, so I list the sire's current
year ranking to date, in the
category that applies to today's race. This ranking is
based on earnings of the top 500
sires of North American thoroughbreds in each of these
five categories - turf, sprint,
mile, route, and all-weather surfaces. The rankings are
in the category corresponding to
today's scheduled surface and distance. I find these
sire rankings especially helpful in
handicapping maiden and turf races. First time starters
can often be handicapped based
solely on this statistic. All-weather rankings are used
at tracks with synthetic surfaces
such as poly-track.
I believe there is money to be made in horse racing, if
you have discipline in two areas - handicapping and
wagering. I've seen many good handicappers who make too
many wagers, or make crucial mistakes at the betting
windows, and many novice handicappers who know how to
put a ticket together. Knowing when, and when not to bet
are crucial. Passing certain races is recommended,
especially if no profiles are found. Of course, if
you're playing a pick4, you can't pass any of those four
races. So, in the absence of profile selections, I tend
to use more combinations in those legs of the bet. My
'key' horses will often fit one of the profiles defined
on my Sample Selections page. But, on occasion, I will
find a horse that fits multiple profiles (pace and
pedigree). In this situation, I may make a more sizable
wager on a horse that should benefit from the pace, and
who also has superior breeding for today's distance and
surface. This combination isn't found often, but I
consider it a 'green light' to make a bigger wager than
usual. I think you should keep your unit bet a
consistent amount, except in these 'green light'
situations. Pace profiles defined on my Sample
Selections page are: lone speed, speed-class, and
lone-closer. 'Top Turf Sire' is an example of a profile
based on pedigree.
Although many other factors are to be considered in
handicapping a race, and are used in my system, pace
handicapping is the basis for this sheet. The sheets are
in PDF format. You must have Adobe Reader
installed on
your computer to view or print. This site also tracks
some of the
recent winners
on the sheet. I discuss this website, the sheet, the
sport of racing, and other topics on my
Lagniappe
page.
As a footnote, this approach is not for the handicapping
purist, the player who buys his racing form a day in
advance, and reads it in his sleep. For him, I would
quote an accomplished race player who once told me, 'see
the unseen, ignore the obvious'. The factors that
separate winners from the rest of the field are not
always in big bold print. Good luck at the races.
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